It seems like Andrew Schenkel misses the midterm election drama already…or maybe he really is just reporting on what matters to green policy watchers. His post today concerns the jostling for positions and committee chairmanships that follows election season and will be going on until the new Senate first convenes early next year.  Did you know that Republicans are currently trying to woo two Democratic senators over to the other side and that, if they both switch parties AND Joe Lieberman declares himself to be a Republican instead of the Independent he has recently become, the Senate will be split 50-50?? I had not realized this and, while it is lovely to be reminded of what a fragile majority the Democrats currently hold, I find the scenario highly unlikely. Joe Lieberman did not become an Independent because it was an important stepping-stone in his journey to join the Republican Party; he became an Independent because he lost the Democratic primary in Connecticut (thanks, in part, to aggressive bloggers like us).

When he gets back to the point, Schenkel discusses potential changes to Senate committees that are key to energy politics: Energy and Natural Resources, Environment and Public Works and Agriculture. In all seriousness, the post touched on an interesting facet of the legislature that is monitored much less closely than the elections themselves. How did it come to pass, for example, that the Republican chairman of the Environment and Public Works committee, James Inhofe is a climate change denier? In a 2005 speech, Inhofe referred multiple times to those who were upset by his calling global warming a hoax as “environmental extremists,” and called their belief in global warming “an article of religious faith.” Unfortunately, Schenkel doesn’t predict that Inhofe will be replaced as chairman.

How likely is it that the two other “Blue Dog” senators mentioned by Schenkel (Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Ben Nelson of Nebraska) will change parties? According to the U.S. Senate’s website, 21 senators have changed parties while in the Senate since 1890. Only 3 of those switches have occurred in the last decade (including Mr. Lieberman’s), and only 7 have occurred since 1970. Only three times in history has a Democrat joined the Republican Party.

Joe Manchin, as governor of West Virginia, speaking about a recent lawsuit regarding coal mining regulations filed against the EPA by the state.

The odds are decent that Manchin and Nelson will stay put for now, which is a relief as far as our little majority is concerned. However, if “blue dog” implies that their tendencies in environmental matters list to the right anyway, it may be little consolation that they belong to the Democratic Party.